Energy sector emissions are predicted to decrease with current policies, but the 1.5 °C goal is still far-off

Driven by policies, expanding markets, and falling costs, clean energy technologies are shifting the outlook for emissions even under current policies. In the Stated Policies Scenario, emissions are now projected to be 7.5 Gt lower in 2030 than in our 2015 Pre-Paris Baseline Scenario, of which policy driven expansions of solar PV and wind account for 5 Gt and electric vehicles for nearly 1 Gt. This shift in the outlook means that the projected warming of 2.4 °C in 2100 under current policy settings, though still worryingly high, is now 1 °C lower than before the Paris Agreement in 2015.